Manchester United face Liverpool in fascinating fight for top four

The ESPN FC crew examine the SPI predictions for the teams that will finish in the top four of the Premier League, and look ahead to Manchester United's challenging schedule.

Manchester United simply do not make sense this season. Every game appears to bring a fresh nadir in the quality of performance; each week a fresh layer of despair is added to how joyless this team seems to have become.

Heads are shaken as another anemic Angel Di Maria performance makes him look a shadow of the
player we saw in the early weeks of the season; eyes are rubbed as those present wonder whether this is the same Radamel Falcao who was the deadliest centre-forward in Europe a couple of years ago, hands thrown into the air at the concept of Chris Smalling being a first-choice defender.

Yet they remain in fourth place, installed in the Champions League places that looked like a pipe dream during the darkest days of David Moyes last season. They defy football logic, which teaches us that good performances equal good results. Indeed, this looks like an excellent season for United, as long as you haven't actually been watching the matches.

This isn't the grim efficiency of the latter days of Sir Alex Ferguson, when his men seemed to win matches, titles and trophies through sheer force of will, with their manager's personality imbuing the side with an absolute refusal to lose.

Recently, it's tough to attribute results to much more than luck -- last weekend's 2-0 win over Sunderland was helped along by a silly foul and Wes Brown's sending-off amid increasing exasperation from the stands at their lack of attacking intent. The last-gasp victory at Newcastle on Wednesday came via a defensive mix-up and a piece of Ashley Young opportunism.

Still, Louis van Gaal seemed quite satisfied, saying after the game: "I think we have dominated for 90 minutes, maybe our best match of the season, especially in an away match we deserved the victory."

It's difficult to imagine even the most partisan United supporter agreeing with their manager on that count. Oddly, their most impressive recent performance was in the 2-1 defeat to Swansea.

The next few games will be absolutely crucial and will probably show whether Van Gaal has built a team on sand or whether they really can scrap their way back into the Champions League. After the FA Cup tie with Arsenal on Monday, they face Tottenham, Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea in a little over a month, with what you'd imagine is a relative "gimmie" at home to Aston Villa somewhere in the middle.

These are all teams with their own problems and none of them perfect, but they are much more likely to punish the errors and inadequacies that United have managed to get away with in the past few games.

Liverpool have earned more points than any other team in the Premier League since the start of 2015, but will the improved play land them a top-four spot?

Hanging on to a place in the top four after last season's calamity will either be regarded as a success or the bare minimum for United, depending on your view or expectations from spending 150 million pounds in the summer. So can they do it? Can they hold off the challenge of those around them?

Arsenal are currently in third place, and you would logically think there are enough straightforward games in their run-in to ensure they will stay in either third or fourth place, the positions in which they have finished in the last nine (nine!) seasons.

However, we have seen in recent weeks that Arsene Wenger's side are capable of some supremely embarrassing moments, folding like a cheap deckchair against Monaco in the Champions League and also collapsing against Tottenham and Southampton in the league. Even with their history of consistent league finishes in mind and general efficiency in dispatching the lower lights of the division, their habit of unexpectedly throwing in implausibly poor performances is enough to make you think twice about inking them in for a top-four spot.

Southampton are only four points behind United, but their season appears to be levelling out, a reversion to the mean. While a top-seven or -eight finish will represent a fine season given some of the predictions in the summer, they are surely no longer realistic top-four contenders. Equally, Tottenham, who have been sporadically impressive since their season seemed to turn around at some point in December, are too far behind to provide any sort of real threat to the elite.

Which leaves us with Liverpool. Brendan Rodgers is just starting to receive the sort of credit he deserves for righting the ship at Anfield towards the end of 2014, after having the bravery to rip things up and start again when it became clear their season was going nowhere.

A more stubborn manager may have thought that his previous approach had nearly won them the league last season, so why change it all just a few months later? Rodgers acted decisively and without ego (perhaps odd for someone with his outward confidence), while others may have dallied, and as a result they have taken 30 points from the last available 36.

Their form is reminiscent of the implausible run that took them to within inches of winning the Premier League last term, and while they are too far back and face a more robust side in Chelsea to repeat that this time, it has made them contenders to qualify for the Champions League.

In fact, the only thing stopping them from being favourites for a top-four spot is their own run-in, which features trips to Arsenal and Chelsea, as well as that absolutely colossal encounter with United at Anfield in a few weeks. Perhaps the difference is that Liverpool displayed in their 2-1 win over Manchester City on March 1 that they not only have the ability to win these big games, but outplay theoretically superior opponents too.

Arsenal will probably maintain their position because that's what Arsenal do, but the way the other contenders are playing at the moment, it's difficult to imagine that United will be able to hold off a Liverpool side that look rampant.

Still, while logic might say United will struggle to finish in the top four, little about their season has been logical so far. With the title Chelsea's to lose, this looks like being the most interesting race left in the Premier League season.