Chelsea v PSG
Chelsea squeezed past PSG last season with a victory at Stamford Bridge - can they repeat the trick this time? Michael Cox looks at the tactical battle, while Alan Thompson provides the betting expertise.
Wednesday 7:45,
Match Odds: Chelsea 2.04, PSG 4.4, The Draw 3.5.
After a 1-1 draw in Paris in the first leg, this feels like an extremely well-balanced tie heading into Wednesday's meeting at Stamford Bridge. A goalless draw would send Chelsea through, but the attacking firepower in the PSG side means keeping a clean sheet could be extremely difficult, despite what Alan Thompson (see below) thinks!
Both teams' line-ups should remain very similar to the first leg. Neither manager has many new injury worries - John Obi Mikel is still out, and Jose Mourinho's biggest worry is over Nemanja Matic, who reportedly injured himself in the Capital One Cup celebrations against Tottenham, despite the fact he wasn't even playing in that match because of suspension. Nevertheless, it would be surprising if he missed out.
Mourinho is likely to continue with the more defensive format of his side, playing Ramires alongside Matic, pushing Cesc Fabregas further forward and leaving out Oscar, who has struggled in recent months. Eden Hazard and Willian will play on the flanks with Diego Costa upfront, and probably the only selection dilemma is in defence. Kurt Zouma could be preferred to Gary Cahill because of his superior pace.
Laurent Blanc should be able to call upon the services of Thiago Motta, who has recovered from injury and played against Lens in the 4-1 weekend win without any problems.
This probably means he'll start in the deep-lying midfield position, battle with fellow ex-Barcelona midfielder Fabregas, and allowDavid Luiz to return to defence against his former club, alongside compatriot Thiago Silva.
This gives Blanc the option of moving Marquinhos to right-back. Although that's not his natural position, he's capable of playing there and Blanc might decide he wants a solid defender against Hazard, Chelsea's main threat.
In the first leg, right-back Gregory van der Wiel got tight and coped reasonably well, and also charged past Hazard into attack - the way Chelsea were knocked out of last season's competition, when Hazard failed to track Atletico Madrid's Juanfran. This is the major tactical decision: does Blanc want to defend against Hazard, or be more open and attack him?
The second key battlezone is in midfield, where Marco Verrattiis likely to find lots of space, as in the first leg. The reason is simple: Verratti drops extremely deep to the right of Motta to collect possession, and it's unlikely Matic will want to push up the pitch into such an advanced position, partly because the Chelsea centre-backs will want help dealing with balls into Zlatan Ibrahimovic's feet.
With Fabregas on Motta, and Ramires battling with the similarly energetic Blaise Matuidi, Verratti will have time to look up and play long balls over the top of the Chelsea defence.
In the first leg, PSG created almost all their chances down the left flank, because of Maxwell's overlapping from full-back and Matuidi's shuttling forward into attack. The likes of Ramires and Willian must help to protect Branislav Ivanovic here, with bothEzequiel Lavezzi and Edinson Cavani likely to pop up on that flank - they're capable of switching sides.
Both also offer great pace in behind, and while Ibrahimovic might be considered PSG's main goalscoring threat, in Champions League matches he often drops into deep positions before playing through-balls to the two South Americans, breaking forward from wide positions.
Lavezzi often races in behind but his finishing is disappointing, while Cavani missed a crucial chance in that situation at Stamford Bridge last year. Still, they might be overpriced in terms of the First Goalscorer bets. Ibrahimovic, it must be said, has a poor record at this stage of the European Cup.
Overall, expect a tight and cagey match, with both sides looking to counter. PSG will rely on quick balls in behind the Chelsea centre-backs, while Chelsea will look to break through Hazard on the left.
I'm tempted to back Under 2.5 goals, but am wary of the game opening out dramatically in the final 20 minutes if one team needs to chase the game. Therefore, I'll instead back a half-time 0-0 at 2.8.
Bayern VS Shaktar
Shakhtar kept Bayern Munich quiet in Ukraine and should resist for at least 45 minutes at the Allianz...
Bayern Munich v Shakhtar
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1
Bayern Munich
Midfield injuries remain an issue for Bayern Munich, with Javi Martinez, Thiago Alcantara and Philipp Lahm all still out and Xabi Alonso suspended on account of his two yellow cards in the first leg.
However, it is a problem in the loosest sense of the word given that it hasn't prevented them from delivering four emphatic domestic victories since the first leg by an aggregate margin of 15-2.
Shakhtar
Wily veteran (is there any other type?) Mircea Lucescu should be able to call on all 14 players that he utilised when the sides met in Lviv. Beyond that, Brazilian World Cup attendee Bernard is sidelined, while Ukrainian defenders Ivan Ordets and Serhiy Kryvtsov are both doubts.
In terms of results, they should be helped by the fact that theirdomestic campaign is finally up and running following its winter break. Having gone over two months without a competitive game before the first leg, they have participated in three since, winning twice and drawing away to Metalist.
Match Odds: Bayern Munich 1.19, Shakhtar 22.0, The Draw 8.6
Shakhtar will have mixed feelings about the first leg - a combination of pride at shutting out one of the fiercest attacks on the planet, with Lucescu noting that they restricted them to one shot on goal, and slight frustration at not capitalising on facing ten men for the final 25 minutes. Still, they got themselves in a position whereby a score draw at the Allianz Arena will see them through.
Bayern Munich's numbers are intimidating: 15 home wins from 16 this season, with the likes of Man City, Roma, Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund swatted aside and the sole setback a 1-1 draw against Schalke in which they played 73 minutes with a man disadvantage.
However, there is a glimmer of a weakness that Shakhtar can draw hope from: Bayern's tendency to perform worse in the second leg of a double header.
In five of their last seven two-legged Champions League knockout ties, their result in match two was weaker than in match two. The scorelines were identical in one of the others and they only improved in the return fixture once - against Man United in last term's quarter-finals.
The most glaring examples of them suffering in a second legwere losing 2-0 at home to Arsenal in 2012/13 having beaten them 3-1 away and being thrashed 4-0 by Real Madrid at the Allianz Arena last April from the recoverable position of 1-0 down on aggregate.
The odds paint Bayern as overwhelming favourites, but they cleared a one-goal handicap in less than half of their last seven home Champions League encounters, being held by Arsenal and defeated by Man City and Real Madrid in 2013/14 and limited to a 1-0 triumph by Man City in September.
Shakhtar meanwhile have been conquered by a margin wider than one goal in just two of their last 22 clashes in the competition and none of the last ten. Even when they have lost abroad to the likes of Chelsea and Man United, it has been by one goal.
Bayern Munich are odds-on to be ahead at the interval too. Their visitors haven't been behind on 45 minutes in any of their past ten Champions League games though. More significantly, they haven't conceded a single first-half goal in that period, which adds up to almost eight hours of football.
The hosts were level at half time against Hannover at the weekend and took until the 45th minute to break down second-tier Eintracht Braunschweig at the Allianz last Wednesday. They switched ends with a lead in only two of their last six European contests there.
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